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Bengals vs. Broncos Monday Night Football odds, predictions: Best bets, player prop wagers

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Bengals vs. Broncos Monday Night Football odds, predictions: Best bets, player prop wagers Matt RussellSeptember 29, 2025 at 10:51 PM 0 The Week 4 Monday Night Football doubleheader doesn't require an extra cup of coffee, as it pits the Bengals and Broncos, not just against each other, but in compet...

- - Bengals vs. Broncos Monday Night Football odds, predictions: Best bets, player prop wagers

Matt RussellSeptember 29, 2025 at 10:51 PM

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The Week 4 Monday Night Football doubleheader doesn't require an extra cup of coffee, as it pits the Bengals and Broncos, not just against each other, but in competition for primary screen space with the overlapping earlier Jets-Dolphins start.

This game was primed to be flipped over to at kickoff, until Joe Burrow's turf toe injury in Week 2. Not only does this game lose some of its luster, that injury caused a fundamental change in the betting market for it.

Breaking down the reaction to Jake Browning's involvement in place of Burrow is how we'll land on a side for Week 4's finale.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 44.5)

Cincinnati was a lightning-rod team coming into this season.

Burrow was a hot ticket for MVP, which would have required the Bengals to be a playoff team. Others felt like the Bengals' defense would undermine an electric offense, for a second straight year.

Now, without Burrow, is that offense fully unplugged?

In Browning's first start, it sure looked that way in Minnesota, but the Bengals spent the entire game behind the proverbial 8-ball. Carson Wentz managed the "first-15" offensive script to an opening touchdown, and, after duelling punts, the Bengals were driving, looking to tie it up, when a deflected pass was taken the other way for 87 yards by Isaiah Rodgers for a 14-0 lead. The Bengals added three fumbles, including another turnover in Vikings' territory when Rodgers returned Noah Fant's fumble to make it 24-7.

It was a sloppy performance all around, and, as a result, the Bengals are being rated in the betting market alongside the Dolphins, and beneath the Cowboys, Raiders, and Browns. But, is that the tier where we should expect the Bengals to live, until potentially Burrow returns?

Much was made coming into Week 3 about Jake Browning being successful in his last replacement stint, but can the Bengals come back from a game where Browning had a back-breaking interception inside the opponent's 20, while throwing for less than 200 yards?

In fact, they can.

In 2023, Browning threw for 197 yards, and threw an interception on the 16-yard line when the Bengals were driving for a two-score lead in an eventual loss to the Steelers. Browning went 4-2 the rest of the way, throwing for 10 touchdowns to six interceptions, including a 32-of-37, 354-yard performance a week later. Perhaps appropriately, it was a Monday night road game against an AFC playoff contender (Jacksonville), as an underdog of over a touchdown.

The Broncos have played three games where the final score lingered right on the prescribed point spread:

Week 1: Won by 8 as 9-point favorites vs. Titans

Week 2: Lost by 1 as 1-point favorites at Colts

Week 3: Lost by 3 as 2.5-point underdogs at Chargers

That's an indication that the betting market has a strong handle on the Broncos rating, as an above-average team. However, if bettors think the Bengals are now merely 1.5 points better than the Titans, they may be in for a surprise.

Pick: Bengals +7.5

Player propsJa'Marr Chase: Over 5.5 receptions (+105)

Pessimism regarding Browning's ability to run the offense has started to proliferate through the prop market as well. In the game referenced above, Browning threw Chase the ball 12 times and he caught 11 of them.

A game two years ago doesn't predict the future, but simplifying things for Browning by making a point to get the ball in the hands of Chase is something of a timeless concept.

Given the superstar is usually lined at 6.5 — or even 7.5 — catches in this market, Chase is definitely worth backing on Monday night. The Broncos can rally and tackle and it won't matter to our bet.

JK Dobbins: Under 15.5 rush attempts (-130)

Dobbins' recent explosiveness might actually be hurting him when it comes to this market. Runs of 23 and 41 against the Colts and Chargers are explosive plays that result in fewer overall carries available. The only game Dobbins has gone over this number was the first, when the Broncos had a hard time getting the ground game going. Plus, the Titans' poor offense in that game gave the Broncos repeated chances to hand the ball off.

[Check out all of Yahoo's sports betting content here in our new betting hub]

The Bengals' run defense is every bit as bad as their pass defense, so whether Dobbins is responsible for the big plays, or others are, slowly grinding it out on the ground with one running back isn't the likely game script for Denver — especially considering Sean Payton's penchant for being inconsistent with his running backs.

Anytime touchdownsJa'Marr Chase (+175)

In line with our rationale for taking Chase over his reception total, when do we ever get a chance to back him to score at odds this far away from even money?

Troy Franklin (+275)

Trailing only Courtland Sutton in snaps for Broncos wide receivers, Troy Franklin has 19 total targets and four red zone targets, leading the team in both categories. After scoring in Indianapolis in Week 2, Franklin missed a glorious chance to score against the Chargers. Payton regularly draws up plays for Franklin, and, going back to their days at Oregon, Nix is happy to look for him.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

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